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$15.00 Plot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments. (b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes.

Found in Mathematics: General-Mathematics
Chapter 1, # 0

Q:

Plot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments. (b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes. (c) Would a fitted trend be helpful? Explain. (d) Make a similar graph for 1992 – 2003 only. Would a fitted trend be helpful in making a prediction for 2004? (c) Fit a trend model of your choice to the 1992 – 2003 data. (f) Make a forecast for 2004, using either the fitted trend model or a judgment forecast. Why is it best to ignore earlier years in this data set?
U. S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipments, 1966-2003           
Year     Planes     Year     Planes     Year     Planes     Year     Planes
1966     15,587     1,976     15,451     1986     1,495     1996     1,053
1967     13,484     1,977     16,904     1987     1,085     1997     1,482
1968     13,556     1,978     17,811     1988     1,143     1998     2,115
1969     12,407     1,979     17,048     1989     1,535     1999     2,421
1970     7,277     1,980     11,877     1990     1,134     2000     2,714
1971     7,346     1,981     9,457     1991     1,021     2001     2,538
1972     9,774     1,982     4,266     1992     856     2002     2,169
1973     13,646     1,983     2,691     1993     870     2003     2,090
1974     14,166     1,984     2,431     1994     881           
1975     14,056     1,985     2,029     1995     1,028

 

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